Oil, War & Property: What Agents Need to Know Now
On June 22, 2025, the United States entered the Iran–Israel conflict by launching Operation Midnight Hammer—targeting three Iranian nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan) with B‑2 stealth bombers and submarine-launched Tomahawks.
U.S. officials described the strikes as “extremely severe,” though Iran countered that most sites suffered only “superficial” damage, and that enriched uranium had been relocated beforehand.
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Why it matters:
- Oil futures and options have surged since Israel’s earlier attacks.
- Iran may retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for 30% of global seaborne oil.
- IMF estimates a 10% jump in oil prices if this continues.
What history tells us:
- Iran Revolution (1979): Amid oil supply disruptions, housing prices surged from Q4 1978 to Q2 1981.
- Ukraine War (2022): Similar geopolitical shocks have historically driven oil prices to $110+ (Ukraine war) and triggered inflationary waves, prompting central banks to raise interest rates. SG housing prices still soared 7.9% YoY, mirroring trends during the 1979 Iranian Revolution (Q4 2022, URA Figure 1).
Figure 1: URA Property Price Index of Residential Properties
Source: URA REALIS
What are the Implications?
| Area | Expected Impact |
| Housing Demand | Likely to rise as buyers seek real estate as an inflation hedge. |
| Inflation & Rates | Rising oil prices may pressure central banks to tighten policy. |
| Energy Transition | Governments may accelerate investment in alternatives to reduce vulnerability. |
| Homebuyers Strategy | Those poised to buy should act now—rates won’t drop soon, and construction costs will keep prices elevated. |
Advice for Real Estate Agents:
- Close the deal now: Mobilize undecided buyers. The rising inflation reduces buyers’ real spending power.
- Promote move-in-ready homes: Renovation costs are up. Buyers will prefer completed units.
- Set urgency: Rates unlikely to drop further. Delays could cost buyers more.
